Invasive species, once established,
are very destructive ecologically and economically. It is difficult,
if not impossible, to contain
an invasion, and it is costly to mitigate the effects. The best solution
would be to act before the species invades. The key to preventing invasions
is predicting the invaders.
A great deal of research is being done in this area. For example, Ricciardi and Rasmussen (4) use simple, low-cost empirical approaches to predict invasions, and demonstrate this prediction ability by identifying high-risk species from the Ponto-Caspian basin. These researchers used the following steps: |
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1.
Identify potential donor regions and dispersal pathways of future invaders,
concentrating on biodiversity “hotspots,” areas
of similar climate, and shipping patterns 2. Select potential invaders using biological criteria 3. Use invasion history as a predictive criterion |
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MacIsaac, Grigorovich, and Ricciardi (24) use a similar approach. They identify“invasion corridors” and quantify vector pathways to provide a quantitative measure of past invasions and a model for future invasions. Kolar and Lodge (25) used a quantitative model to predict which species are likely to become established, quick-spreading, and invasive, with 87-94% accuracy. They were also able to identify fish species that have a high risk of becoming invasive in the Great Lakes and separate them by vector (intentional versus unintentional introduction). These models are a promising approach to predicting future invasive species. Once the species are identified, they can be targeted through specific ballast water sampling tests, public outreach and education campaigns, and ecological surveys. |
